The Doc's Diagnosis: The squad size myth
Written by Doc Bowles   
Wednesday, 23 April 2008

When Villa "failed" to add significantly to squad numbers during both the summer close season of 07 and the January 08 window, many of us were quick to jump on Martin O'Neill's back.

A lack of ambition; poor planning; unwillingness to invest: all these were accusations frequently levelled at the manager and the club chairman.

I accept that nothing material has been achieved yet this season: qualification for Europe is far from guaranteed. But it does seem to me that clubs with far more extensive squads are facing some short-term difficulties which Villa will avoid.

Firstly, the moment the transfer window opens this summer all your Steve Sidwell's and Tal Ben Haim's and Peter Crouch's and John Arne Riise's will inevitably be immediately linked with transfers. For the simple reason that they are good Premier League players who want to do more than turn up for training in the morning, hope for a seat on the bench at the weekend and get "rotated" once in a while.

One of the great plusses of a slightly smaller squad is that, by and large, the players play. And playing players are happy players. Even Shaun Maloney and Marlon Harewood have played key roles in Villa's season, and have never been far from a first team start.

Secondly, it puzzles me why clubs with bigger squads seem to suffer more with injuries than Villa have. I'm no physiotherapist, but do regularly playing players have muscle tone and conditioning which is more resistant to injury than those less frequently in 90-minute action? You know what, I suspect so.

Thirdly, is it any coincidence that Villa have come into such fine form so late in the season? Towards the end of a campaign, the players have come to know each other and what makes each other tick. Even the change in shape introduced by O'Neill after our March dip in form was effortlessly successful - because the players know each other's games so intimately.

Rotate the side over and over again, and I believe your league form is likely to suffer.

Quite obviously, clubs who are involved in lengthy European campaigns and expect to enjoy long cup runs in both competitions need serious squad cover, and maybe even different types of player to handle European competition. To that extent, if Villa do take their deserved place in the UEFA Cup, then we should expect to see some serious investment in both quality and experience (especially with Mellberg off to Turin).

But as far as this season is concerned, with Europe off the radar and early exits in both domestic cups, I believe that O'Neill's decision to stick with a relatively small squad and get a team playing together and understanding each other so well has paid dividends.

We shouldn't have gone into the season without a recognised right back: but then a player who has captained Sweden in that position covered by the England U21 right back isn't such a bad outcome.

Squad size is "horses for courses". I think O'Neill ran the right horse this time around.

Comments (24)add comment

David M said:

Good points here and I would go even further and question if the squad is really that small at all. After all there is quality on the bench now, not something we have always said over the last few years. Also, we have cover in most positions. Maybe only 2 or 3 additions are actually needed in this window (above anyone leaving..), provided that they are at least as good as we already have. We don't want to litter the squad with bit part players, do we?
April 23, 2008

NH08 said:

A heavy rotation policy is generally criticised by the media and fans alike. But if you look at Ferguson and United, he has to rotate and his team still manages to be top of the league and in the semis of the Champions League.

Still, I think with the squad we have, in terms of numbers, we have had a brilliant season. Villa have a past of keeping injury prone players playing for most of the season, and I think MON knows that training and practice cannot be too intense with the squad size he has.
April 23, 2008

Peter said:

Excellent article - you talk a lot of sense Doc Bowles
April 23, 2008

PaulE said:

It would be good to be able to rest players occasionally and have more backup for injuries and suspensions, but I agree that having roughly the same team playing week in, week out has to be good for team performance. There is, of course, the worry that if Barry, Young and Laursen were all injured or suspended at the same time, we could be a bit screwed.

As the Doc has mentioned, there is the question of dressing room unrest when decent players aren't playing. We have people like Harewood and Taylor who are quite happy to fight for their place and don't sulk when they're on the bench, even if they've played well. MON will do well to choose backup players who have a similar attitude.

April 23, 2008

anotherjames said:

You make a good argument there. The squad should really match the clubs ambitions though. So if we do qualify for Europe this season, the squad has to expand to accommmodate for the extra games.
You might be right about the squad working together better as a team at the end of the season though. The measure of success has to be results, and if we qualify for Europe, the squad was clearly big enough. But if we do, next season could be difficult.
April 23, 2008

eoin1981 said:

I'm sorry but I disagree completely. There is no doubt that based on our current squad - we have overachieved. There is also no doubt that the smaller the squad - the easier is it to develop a strong team spirit and keep players happy - simply because nearly all of them get game time.

So in short I do agree that there are big advantages to a small squad and a settled team - but overall if you rely on this strategy you are doomed to fail.

Doc - i'm afraid that your suspection that players who play regularily have different muscle tones etc.etc. is way off the mark. There is of course match fitness and sharpness - but this has nothing to do with injuries. The reason that Villa's smaller squad has less injuries is very simple - we have had a huge amount of LUCK in this regard, coupled with the fact that we dont buy complete injury prone players - see Spurs, West Ham and Newcastle. We also have had basically no cup matches this year which means that we have played the fewest amount of matches of the vast majority of teams in the league.

Nearly all commentators and fans alike say - 'with the squad villa have - they have done wonders this season' - its up to Mon to increase the squad with both numbers and quality. He raises this point himself in nearly every interview!!
April 23, 2008

kieran84 said:

Our reserve team has won the league so surely our squad cannot be that bad.As for over-achieving there is no such thing if you are achieving it then it`s because you are capable of achieving it.Overall we have improved vastly form last season and thats all anyone can ask,if we keep improving at the rate we have under o`neill then good times are ahead.
April 23, 2008

AK28 said:

We got lucky with injurys. One long term injury all season is a miracle so don't start this small squad aided us crap and that MON forseen that we didnt need a bigger squad. If we do qualify for the UEFA cup we will have to play our games on Thurs night and then have a game 3 days later on the Sunday. There is no way our current squad could cope with that and you will probably see far more injuries as a result next season. Thats is why we need to bring in at least 7-8 players next season if we do qualify for thre UEFA because we could possibly have 10 games more to play (im including better FA and Carling cup runs)next season.
April 23, 2008

villadaz said:

Great post Doc...But would we have given up points against Boro and S'land if we had a bigger squad. I really think not.

I believe in quality before quantity, but even Sc**thorpe have a reserve RB!!!

As I said before great post and I agree with a lot what you wrote.

Keep The Faith
April 23, 2008

villafandan said:

great article from the times on our training facilities which probably have contributed to our lack of injuries - you make your own luck in this world!! the "hour of opportunity" is especially key to our success imo.

timesonline

great interview with NRC revealing the working life of a premiership footballer. read this and tell me that these young, professional athletes are tired. awww, poor wee lambs.

guardian

i'm not sure about injuries being related to the frequency of matches, but i think there's definitely an "injury culture" at other clubs, almost always with big squads. that's down to the management though, i don't ever see MON wasting any time on players who want to sit on the treatment table and pick up a paycheck every week.
April 23, 2008

villa rob said:

i think you are correct to a certain extent, and the core of a team should stay as the core, but surely if we had had 2 0r 3 key injuries this season we would have been stuffed and nowhere near 5th place.
April 23, 2008

McVillain said:

2 sides of the argument I think

1 hand -a samll squad has in the past few games has had us showing amazing teamwork and superb displays, but must be said against poorer teams. Also didn't our last title winning team of 81 only play something ridiculous like 12 or 13 different players?

We are all saying we need LOTS of new players and loads of talk about a RB.

IMO despite playing well with the small squad, we need more players, most certainly some more world class players, but my question is- Which positions are we going to put them and replace them with? So which players we dropping?

April 23, 2008

swall said:

I don't think we've been that lucky with injuries with curtis davies out 4 9 months, berger out for practically all season, carew has had lots of time out. Gardner has had a few aswell. We've only had 2 players who have played in every game which other than top 4 will be about the same as the rest
April 23, 2008

Tommy 7890 said:

One thing that does annoy me is when West Ham fans for example complain for say having twice as many injuries as us. But then again this is only logical when their squad size is almost twice the size of ours.
April 23, 2008

Top_6_Villa said:

Doc said:

A lack of ambition; poor planning; unwillingness to invest: all these were accusations frequently levelled at the manager and the club chairman

Yes and quite rightly so... just because we are this close now it does not mean we have to retract the comments about how things were done.

IT IS THROUGH PURE LUCK AND LUCK ALONE THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY LUCKY WITH NO INJURIES

Everytime we screwed up a game or ht that dip... oniel always said... we have to do somethign about it

he had every opportunity. nearly a quarter of a year to bolster..

my feelings are the same.. i am happy we are where we are... but by rights with the way it was handled... we should be half way down the table...

not through performance. we have played some really great footy... but because you never go through a season without losing many players for long periods of time through injuries..

Oniel is going to look like a platinum and diamond ring that my misses would dream of. purely for the luck of no injuries.
April 23, 2008

I HATE BLUES said:

The only reason we have coped so far with our squad ,which by the way is to small is cos weve only had the premiership to contend with and to date have played 38 competitve games.Compare this to Man U -54,Chelsea-57 ,Arsenal-55,Liverpool-56 now you tell me we dont need a bigger squad.I bet if you looked at the likes of Spurs ,Everton ,Bolton youll find they have played more games than us.
April 23, 2008

Leroy said:

Nice article Doc. I believe we defiantely need a bigger squad though, and i think everyone posted their dissaproval in January when we didnt buy more than Routledge. I think % wise we have the same injuries as any other team with a full squad anyway. I believe that if we are to learn anything from this Gareth Barry situation, its that we can no longer take a caution approach to our transfer dealings. If we dont bring in a few more quality players, it might not just be Barry who wants out.
April 23, 2008

Tonybell said:

There is no doubt that Martin O'Niell is a damn fine manager and we are lucky to have him. But with the likes of Melberg and Carson definately leaving this summer and more importantly the possibility of Barry also leaving I can't help but think that O'Neill (or perhaps the Chairman) has maybe miscalcualted. Who else might go at the end of the season? Then we are back to rebuilding the squad. The importance of Barry is key at the moment. I have always liked him as a player but since O'Neill made him Captain he has really shone and helped galvernize the players that O'Neill has provided. Then there's Carson. He has had his ups and downs but I think he has a bright future wherever he lands. But I have to ask was he any better that Sorensen? I am not so sure, and knowing that we have pretty much lost Carson why haven't we played Sorensen. He has pulled off some tremendous saves in the past. No I think we face a tough season next season if we do not spend well and buy wisely in the summer. With the size of squad we have and without a few more key players we are not going to go further that where we are now and that would be a real shame because this season has been terrific and the team (the players and the manager) deserve the reward of more opportunity next season.
April 24, 2008

AV33 said:

Nice article Doc and you make the point for team togetherness etc very well. I tend to agree with you but I also agree with many of the posters who ask how we would have coped if we hadn't been knocked out of all of the cups early and we hadn't been so lucky with injuries.
Nothing as really changed apart from we've had an exceptional week or so,(winning three games on the trot, scoring 15 goals, conceding only one and condemning the Blues helps loads).
We still have the same small squad, albeit they are playing out of their skins and in a style and swagger that i haven't seen in many a year.
Hopefully, MON & Randy will splash the cash in the close season and make us all happy boys. However, any money spent now must be on quality additions like a great right back and right sided forward. I heard somewhere that Tierry Henry wants to come back to England but not with Arsenal ! Let's have him MON !!!!
Four or five real quality signings we need in the summer, at least two of them world class !!

Here's hoping...
UP THE VILLA smilies/wink.gif smilies/wink.gif
April 24, 2008

Ipbopmalik said:

I like the article Doc, although I'm not sure I agree with some of your theories. We have had some good and some excellent additions to the squad. This has allowed us to have a 'surprise factor' for some teams, however if we remain one dimensional; teams will snuff us out in future. We have made significant progress, but are way off the big boys. I believe we can bridge the gap if we make 'QUALITY' signings in the summer and continue to nurture our existing talent. I would be disappointed if we bought any more mediocre players on the basis they'll be good squad players!
Doc, what were you thinking about with the muscle toning? I think it's a very romantic notion that a team can win a league with 12 or 13 players. Nothing is impossible of course!
April 24, 2008

Mick70 said:

Good points but yet again we're looking at things through rosey tinted glasses on the back of 3 (stunning) results against poor opposition. Yes the squad is small and we need to buy and buy a lot, whichever way you want to look at it. Had we done so earlier, we would have probably secured Europe by now.
April 24, 2008

Salty said:

You know the success of the Reserve and Youth squads may just be linked to the lack of transfer activity.
April 24, 2008

kohoutek said:

Every good season requires injury luck.

I think you're right on, Doc. Youth, good training and sports science, and a calculated risk on MON's part. And it's paid off.

The youngsters needed as many premiership games as they could get. Villa grew leaps and bounds this year. They will continue to do so.
April 24, 2008

pazzler said:

i think salty has a good point. the performances and potential of some of the reserve players may be a factor in the lack of transfer activity. couple this wit the buy british policy, an maybe this may explain a few things. for a while ppl hav been lauding the futures of forrester, delfouneso, steibler et al. cud they hav sum role to play nxt season?
April 24, 2008

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