When I was a kid there was, or at least I remember it this way, a genuine chance that we could compete for the league and there was always that hope we'd do well in one of the cup tournaments.

Unfortunately it's not like that any more; well not for another few seasons anyway. It makes predicting how our season should pan out easier, but just not as nice. Which is why you're getting it now and because there isn't much else to talk about.

It would be nicer if the league was more open and each team had a real opportunity but until the wave of new owners actually sit down with the Premier League and introduce a wage capping system, so the new owners make the money they are in the game for, I'm afraid it will always be quite predictable.

Anyway that's all for the future and when Randy Lerner purchased the club last year I referred to it as the Randylution, not because it was a revolution but because we were entering a period of evolution for the club and probably for football.

I still believe that but I also believe there is a bigger single influencing factor in Aston Villa moving forward in the short to medium term and that accolade goes to Martin O'Neill.

Yes, Randy Lerner is giving him the cash, but every team, certainly all those with new owners, will be getting cash so it's not really a factor and not one I'm going to use anyway.

Martin O'Neill will do better next season than he did last season and the season after this one coming up he'll do better again. There are lots of factors that contribute towards this and I've even created a fantasy league table for the managers.

You may or may not be surprised to find out that where those managers finish in my fantasy league table is pretty much where I expect the club will finish next season.

Look at Bolton for example. Sammy Lee has never managed before, look at the players he has brought in and then add the 'stupid factor' that he probably wont see out the season, quite possibly even 2007 as Bolton manager.

As it stands now, Sammy Lee is in the bottom three of my fantasy manager league table which means if he saw out the season Bolton would be relegated. You're thinking I'm mad, and I may well be, but let's see what happens next year.

But I think most would agree with me that Bolton will not be the force they were under Sam Allardyce and because of that, it does go some way to confirming my theory that the manager is the single most influencing factor in how well a team does.

Now. In my fantasy manager league table there is a stupid factor you have to apply. That stupid factor comes down to spending huge amounts of cash, a manager losing his job or anything else that you didn't see coming.

If Martin O'Neill spent £200mn. this summer I'd fancy us to challenge for the league title, but the likelihood of that happening is on a par with Birmingham City staying in the Premier League. It'd be stupid and quite possibly the only way we would have a chance of winning the league next season, hence I'm calling it the stupid factor.

Also, we could pip Spurs to 5th place if Martin Jol left to manage a team in Italy or Spain. It won't happen, or I don't expect it to, but you can never just dismiss the 'stupid factor'.

Anyway, my prediction for next season is based on progression. We won't spend the huge sums of cash that Chelsea have but we will get better. We'll get better because Martin O'Neill really is the right man to lead us forward. Spending the money is just part of the game now.

There will be new players in very soon and I fully expect them to be better than what we've got and those players will move us forward. Some will also add to the squad and some will also come from within.

Last season was a good season if you forget about he middle third and if we can shorten that dip in form, which I fully expect us to do, you'll see a stronger Aston Villa finishing sixth next season.

I'm sticking my next out but that's my prediction next year. The same top five, in probably the same order, with us in sixth.

It's not what I want to be predicting and hopefully in two or three years I'll be predicting something else but for now it's good enough. A cup success would be the icing on the cake, but we've never been able to feel that hopeful at the start of a season about one of those.

So there you go. My prediction for next season. Where do you think we'll finish and do you think my theory on how important the manager is to the team is complete tosh or do you think it has legs? Comment below.

Comments (16)

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Cubos said:

Great article and a nice read.

June 25, 2007

jonnyvillian said:

totally agree. i think 6th or 7th is the best we can hope for next season, however i do think arsenal are on the slide. in two years i can see challenging spurs for 4th spot.

June 25, 2007

Dizzy Mugs said:

Completely right about the manager, cash adds a small amount to it for bringing in better quality but it seems every quality player out there is being chased by at least 5 clubs. MON is a decent manager with a good record and a lot of popularity with players and agents. He played a lrage part is Young, Maloney and Carew signing and Barry staying on and becoming captain. He is the pilot of this Aston Villa plane and hopefully we'll be landing in terminals 5-7 next season (for those who didn't understand, 5th-7th in the League).

June 25, 2007

Bearvill said:

Lets hope your right Damian, i would be very very please with 6th as if 6th place in the league and Most would be please suppose that shows how uncompetitive the league has become, hopefully with the middle teams starting to get better we, they will start to beat the top 4 more often therefore opening the league up

June 25, 2007

DJ said:

I would like to think a UEFA place is not out of our reach. However, I thought this would be guaranteed when Mr Lerner came aboard, offering a few quid to help better the team and putting the feel good factor back into the club. But now several clubs have also been taken over, or about to, which means financially we are no better off because everyone is in the same boat. However, in MON we have a true Villa legend in the making. He aint there yet by a long way, but lets see how the next few years pan out, with some top signings and the Villa brand going from strength to strength, I see a top 6 place for us all the way!! The futures bright, the futures claret and blue

June 25, 2007

VijayD said:

Damian mate, i was calling out for MON to become manager of our beloved club in March 2006 in private email exchanges with members of the blog, I think that MON factor is very important but you will have to agree that if MON was manager of Derby he would not be expected to finish top 6 unless he was handed significant funds. We need to sign top players who will make a real difference to them team and who will be able to compete with the top guns. MON cannot do it all alone. He can motivate them, he is a master tactician, he is the best for me, but he needs a big helping hand, a hand full of money from Mr Lerner.

June 25, 2007

Damian said:

at VijayD i agree with you. while i'm never going to publish my fantasy managers league table i will tell you that one of the factors used was length of time in job and number of players brought in at each opportunity the quality of your manager then determines how successful you will be ... but using your argument; how many top players are going to want to go play for billy davies? the reputation a manager has, which is developed over a number of seasons is a contributing factor in why a big name player will come ... and they will come to villa addition: i guess what i'm saying is that martin o'neill will get the best he can. if o'neill is after defoe for example and then sir alex comes in, where do you think defoe will go? yes it is important but o'neill is more important ... un my humble opinion

June 25, 2007

jonnyvillian said:

DJ i can understand your concerns about other teams having money but what the villa board are doing is making us a global brand. they are not just throwing money at it. in years to come the club will be able to stand on it's own two feet. it will not need Randy's or anyone eleses money. The club will be generating enough cash flow to buy top players. I would rather see our club being built over a period of years like Manu of the early 90's was, not just have money thrown at like Blackburn did, yes Blackburn won the title but then they got relegated.

June 25, 2007

PGough said:

Damian You are being too pragmatic. Lets just remember that every year a couple of top teams make a mess of their campaign through injuries, bad tactics, dressing room quarrels, etc.. If Spurs, Arsenal, Liverpool or the like slip up in such a way then your 6th place prediction will become 4th , providing MON has us in a position to take advantage. I know there are a couple of “ifs” in there but that is the league campaign I expect to see.

June 25, 2007

Damian said:

at PGough maybe i am not taking into consideration possible injuries or slip-ups, but that is probably because just as any team can have injuries ... so can we i see 6th. i see the leap to top 4 as at least one more season

June 25, 2007

DJ said:

Jonnyvillain, thats basically what I was getting at. With MON and the board we have right now, this is what sets us apart from the other teams that want to throw all their money away on average players. These are the players that without all this TV money that has come through, wouldn't be worth half the amounts currently being talked about. On another subject, if reports are correct that West Ham want 12mill for Reo Coker, what the hell happened to the fee for Henry?? 16 million, I know he is 29, but bloody hell thats a pretty good deal for Barcelona if you ask me!!! We are miles away from attracting that sort of player, but some of the prices for average players is just down right saft!!

June 25, 2007

Building year said:

Think you make some great points, and I have been saying since Allardyce's departure that Bolton will struggle, I think the same can be said of Wigan, who have done great things under Jewell, but cant see them being the same side without him. Tipping them both to go down !!!! As for the Villa think it will be 6th or 7th this term, think we are getting rid of the right players but this will still be very much a building season. We are starting to get a great infrastructure, and judging by the quality of the marketing material and the great attention to detail that is being made with every move at Villa Park presently this puts us in a strong position, if the on field decisions are made in the same way. Very optimistic, we're in safe hands.

June 25, 2007

Nick Higginson said:

Nice article. Top 6 is achievable. No bonus points for your Bolton predictions though - any team/manager who thinks Samuel and McCann are good buys is bound to struggle.

June 25, 2007 | url

YokohamaVila said:

Good article Damian. Spot on about where we realistically should hope to finish. The only thing that concerns me is that we don't seem to be buying anyone right now. Perhaps I'm being inpatient, but what happened to the Matty Taylor deal or all the rumours about the Albion players??? Its seems as though every mid table team in the Premiership is after the same small pool of players, just today I read that West Ham have made a bid for Wright-Philips. If we are to achieve the top 6 then we need to increase the depth of our squad, and although we have some cracking young players like Gabby, Moore, Gardner, Cahill and Young, we need to invest in players who are already established as first class international performers. We have to have some depth. The O'Neil factor alone just won't be enough. Up the Villa!

June 25, 2007

VijayD said:

Damian, i just want the best for Villa, i hope you are right, but i dont think that MON on his own can get us challenging at the top, he needs players, top class players, SWP, NRC, Defoe, Davies, Carson, Sneijder, Babel, Forlan, etc etc, then we can challenge for top 4-6 and maybe even further cos of the MON factor!

June 25, 2007

Legend64 said:

I agree with your prediction of 6th. However, at the risk of over generalising, most players like to think that what they achieve out on the pitch is largely down to them, whatever the manager says. Only after a period time do the actually begin to "get" what the manager is trying to do. Like you say, this depends on a complex range of things, buying in new players is a part of it, the working relationship another, new training facilities etc! What i sense is that MON is trying to build a team - bringing in new younger players that can be moulded, and at the same time relying on good solid professionals i.e. Barry.

June 26, 2007

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